Skylog: The SkyGuide

[gse-aa] Auroral Alert

Awaking from a long slumber, the Sun is back in business.  I haven't gotten an aurora alert for ages, so like the first robin in Spring, it, too, is a sign of the changing (solar) seasons.  Also below you will find the lateset US Air Force + NOAA space weather forecast.

These are not big events, in and of themselves.  But it's nice to see the changes starting up again (it's been a LONG solar minimum!)


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The effects of the small solar flares of the 13th and 14th of February 2010
have reached the ACE satellite have already begun to be observed by
magnetometers in the Alaskan Chain.   

We expect auroral activity at least equal to that of Estimated Planetary
Index, Kp = 4.  A map of the expected midnight distribution of aurora is
attached to this email.

Aurora should thus be visible tonight (February 15/16, 2010) from Northern
Russia, Southern Scandinavia, Scotland, Iceland, Southern Greenland, The
Canadian Maritimes, the northern tier of the United States, and Southern
Alaska.

Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys.
The Geophysical Institute                    
University of Alaska Fairbanks



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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1048 (N21E50) produced a
low-level C-class flare early in the period. Region 1046 (N24W36)
continued to gradually decay. No new regions were numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period with a chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 1048.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.  ACE
solar wind data indicated an interplanetary shock passage at
approximately 15/1725Z. This was followed by a weak geomagnetic
sudden impulse at 15/1832Z (02 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The
shock was likely associated with the M8/CME event of 12 February.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during  days 1 - 2 (16 -
17 February) with a chance for active levels. Activity is expected
to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (18 February).